Officials Examine Of The COMELEC

COMELEC’s Director James Jimenez and Commissioner Rene Sarmiento answer the top ten questions of Filipinos all over the globe about the country’s first automated elections in 100 years on May 10, 2010, on the latest webisode of Examine!


Read the interview:

EXAMINE with Director James Jimenez (COMELEC) and COMELEC Commissioner Rene Sarmiento
September 10, 2009

G: Gang Badoy
J: James Jimenez
R: Rene Sarmiento
M: Mavie Almeda-Ungco (GMANews.Tv)

Gang Badoy: Hi, I’m Gang Badoy from GMA News.TV. Welcome to Examine. With me, I have Comelec Commissioner Sarmiento and Director James Jimenez. Hello. Thanks for coming. As you know Examine, we have questions culled from the public … pinadala ang questions. Game na?

Sarmiento & Jimenez: Game.

G: From Raffy Jimenez of Quezon City, “How about the present composition of the Comelec, do you think they’ll be able to recover from the Garci, Bedol incidents? Or do you think the poll body has eradicated the Bedols and the Garcis among its organization?”

J: Well, yeah. Yung composition ng Comelec ngayon, kilala naman ng lahat ng tao ang ating Chairman, Justice Melo, came from the Supreme Court, has a very long history of integrity, so I think we’re pretty safe with the composition. As far as Garci and Bedol, what the automation does, it makes it impossible for people like that to operate. Dahil mabilis ang ating canvassing, wala nang pagkakataon na guluhin o doktorin pa yung resulta. So if we have people like that, they will not be able to affect the system anymore.

G: From Carlo Montenegro, also from Quezon City, “What if the two special felt-tip pens allotted per precinct dry up before voting ends? There are 80,000 precincts on election day, each with 1,000 voters. Will there be enough pens for them? Does that mean two voters at a time lang?”

S: Alam niyo po, sabi ng batas, sa Poll Automation Law, nakalagay po yung continuity plans in case disaster arises or contingency risks. ‘Yan po ay paghahandaan po ng Comelec. ‘Yan po ay ilalagay namin sa General Instructions.

G: So mapi-picture ko ba na meron naman po kayong felt-tip pens?

S: Ay, syempre. Ito po’y paghahandaan po ng Comelec.

G: Carlo, that was your answer. Miguel Roxas of Caloocan asks, “What’s the possibility of the counting machines getting jammed with ballots? Did Comelec test the actual 8.5 x 30 inch ballots to be used on election day?”

J: Yes. I’d like to clarify. When we accepted the bid, there was a little testing done, but that was only for the purpose of qualifying the bid. Each machine that we get, 80,000+, will be tested 100%. So hindi pa tapos yung testing. Yung makina tinest namin noon, that everyone was saying “Ah, na-test na yan, ganyan ganyan” or hindi na-test, that is just for the purpose of qualifying for the bid. Each machine that will be delivered, all 80,000 machines, will be tested for things like these. Now, will it jam? Can it jam? Yes. These machines can jam, just like any machine can. Ang importante dito siguro, meron tayong contingency plan, meron tayong replacement protocol that calls for the replacement of a unit within two hours from the time it needs to be replaced.

G: Two hours is a long time for election day…

J: Well, two hours is a long time for election day, yes, but you have to understand this is all over the country also.

G: I know that a machine, like any machine, it can jam. But it is an expensive machine.

J: Yes, it is.

G: They should at least minimize the incidence of jamming.

J: Well, yes. The machines by themselves will not jam, except under extraordinary circumstances. I mean, you stick a screwdriver there, of course it will jam.

S: That’s why, Gang, we have Field Testing 1, and if necessary, Field Testing 2. We have mock elections, we have road show. We ensure that the machines will operate very safely.
G: Homer Pangilinan from Qatar has a question. “They say that SMARTMATIC-TIM … will get to keep private keys or digital signatures. Can they make changes …”

J: No, that’s wrong.

G: Ah, it’s wrong. The question is “Can they make changes in the precinct ERs without anyone knowing?”

S: They cannot.

G: It is not true that they have private keys and digital signatures. Who will have these private keys and digital signatures?

J: Comelec.

S: Comelec po, para malinaw sa kaibigan nating si Homer. Comelec will be in total control. SMARMATIC has to obey Comelec.

G: Pablo Manalastas of Ateneo. He asks “The Poll Automation Law specifies that the voter should be able to verify his or her votes after the ballot has been fed into the machine. Why has Comelec chosen to have this feature disabled in the PCOS?”

J: I don’t think that’s entirely correct. You have to understand that the law was crafted in order to fit in both a DRE model and an OMR model. A DRE model will have a touch screen – that’s an electronic ballot. The law was designed so that if you use an electronic ballot, then there would be a provision for voter verification. Whereas if you have a paper ballot, you don’t necessarily need voter verification. Hawak niyo na eh. So you just feed it into the voting machine.

G: So in a touch screen nga, it’s gonna look like parang an ATM. Parang, what’s my balance? And you’re gonna see it solely on the screen.

J: Not on the screen, but a printout. And that’s exactly what happened in the ARMM. When we used a DRE touch screen machine, it spat out a ballot. A kind of electronic receipt. That’s for you, for the voter. But that’s because it’s two systems. There’s nothing wrong with it. It’s just that for this election, we chose to use an OMR solution, where you have a paper ballot.

G: Do you have a reason for that?

S: If I may add, yeah. Nag-survey among voters globally, ang gusto ng botante ebidensya, may pinanghahawakan sila. That’s why PCOS, ‘yan po ang gagamitin natin because may paper ballot. May panghahawakan ang mga botante.

J: Just to clarify that. Even with the DRE or a touch screen system, you don’t get to take home the ballot. What we’re afraid of, and everyone’s afraid of, the minute you get out of the polling place, you show it to some operator and say “Pay me.” You can’t take it home with you.

G: Next question from Nerika of Hawaii, “What if the GPRS connection is bad and transmission of results is slow?”

J: First of all, right now, we have what we call a site survey ongoing. That’s where we go out to all of the precincts that we’ve identified already and check the signal there. If the signal doesn’t come out as expected, then we will put up our own satellite system there. Which means that on election day, we will have a very reasonable expectation that all places will be able to transmit at a certain level of efficiency. Ibig sabihin, may signal. Kung ngayon pa lang wala nang signal, tayo ang magse-set up ng sarili nating satellite.

S: Gang, gusto ko dagdagan yung sinabi ni James. Two days ago, we had a meeting with the networks, SMART, GLOBE, and others, and ‘eto po yung pinag-usapan namin. That is our concern. Ayan ay aayusin namin, and they are part of the technical working group headed by a Comelec official. They are cooperating. We want that this election be successful.

G: An admin officer from Paranaque, Victoria Garcia, said “Isn’t there disenfranchisement in the chosen system of manual input of votes and not choosing from a computer? Kasi kung mali ang pagkashade mo, or maling ballpen ang gamit mo, saying na kaagad ang boto.”

J: No. The voting instructions [are] very important. In fact, it’s only two steps. So it’s actually very simple, and kung magkamali ka, then that’s unfortunate. But we’re gonna be doing everything to make sure the level of mistakes is as minimal as possible.

S: That’s why the law, it provides for massive information drive six months into the elections. So lahat po ng mga estudyante, guro, simbahan, NGOs, GMA, helping each other to inform and instruct the people, to guide the people.

J: In fact, I’m on one of the social networks, and I monitored a recent conversation. And someone is saying, “How do you vote in an automated system?” And some person starts telling that other person how, and it was perfectly correct. The instructions being given were exactly right. But the point is, it is that simple. And we are really reaching a lot of people.

S: I think what’s important is an attitude of hope, not the attitude of gloom and doom, but one of hope. Because this is poll automation, so gamitin po natin ito for good. It should be done for change.

G: Sarah Montemayor from Puerto Princesa said “Half of the 23 towns in Palawan are island municipalities that do not have 24-hour electricity and mobile phone signals. How will the automated elections be done in such places?”

J: Well, first of all, the machines have batteries that last more than 12 hours, so we have enough power to conduct the voting. And like I said, we will have satellites set up where mobile phone signals are not available. It’s not that expensive, because the satellite is already there. All we will be introducing will be the LAN satellite, just to beam it up and send the results back. It’s a very inexpensive solution.

S: If I may add, the archipelagic character of the Philippines has been considered. 7,000 islands – ito po ay pinag-aralan, kaya the concerns with the landline, cellular, and satellite…

G: Are you excited, worried, afraid, petrified for the elections?

S: Me? I’m excited. This is something new. After 100 years gone, the last election we had was in 2007. The first election we had after the colonial regime was in 1907. A total of 100 years of manual elections. So this is the first time that we have this automated election system. I’m excited, this is something new. We seize the day, we seize the opportunity.

G: I have a fear that automation will just make it wholesale cheating…how do you assuage me? Comfort me.

S: Yeah, nagkaroon ng dagdag-bawas, which is massive wholesale cheating, because of the slow process in the voting, counting, and canvassing. Palipat-lipat yung mga dokumento, nalilipat from one place to another, nababago. Ito, speed. From the precinct to the munisipyo, two minutes. From the municipal to the central server, COMELEC, one or two minutes. So speed ang kalaban po ng massive cheating, dagdag-bawas. The problem in Pampanga, diba si Ka Among at si Baby Pineda. Because of misappreciation of ballots, Nanay Baby ba, Baby ba, Among o Ka Ed. Mawawala yan because of the shading of the oval or circle.

M: So no way po na magiging posible yung sinasabi ng critics na pwedeng ma-preprogram yung mga PCOS para mag-contain ng results.

J: No. That particular fear comes from a lot of lack of understanding. You see, the process requires that before election day, the PCOS, that’s the counting machine. The counting machine that you will use for the precinct goes through two tests to prove that it is empty, literally. And then on election day itself, before anything happens, the machine prints a zero report, which means that it will show that it has zero votes in its memory. The ballot boxes will be upturned to show that it is empty as well. So a pre-programmed PCOS would not be able to print a zero report. For the zero report, the initialization report, is key and that will be the procedure throughout the 80,000 precincts.

G: And you personally have handled these machines?

S: We have seen these machines during the bidding process. We have seen these machines in the demonstration. We have seen these machines, and people are satisfied after being educated about these machines.

G: Sir, I am not disrespectful at all, but I am almost certain you’re not a machinery expert or an IT expert. Did you consult experts about these machines?

S: We have this advisory council, Gang. Under the law, this is the contribution of NGOs and electoral reform groups in this law. It provides for private IT experts from public and private sectors. They have advised us.(G: akala ko kayo lang yung nagdecide) Ay hindi po. This is not a Comelec fruit, itong PCOS, itong automated election system. Ito po ay produkto po ng Kongreso, House and the Senate, and with the advice of these electoral reform groups.

Mavie Almeda-Ungco: Diba kasi Sir, sa dati pong sistema na manual, pag may isang kandidato po na sumigaw ng “daya,” gagawin lang, ire-recount lang po yung balota. Kung halimbawa ako kandidato tapos sasabihin ko nadaya ako, ano ang sistema para doon?

S: I can explain that. We have a protest mechanism na ilalagay po natin sa General Instructions. So ano ang gagamitin ng mga abogado as ebidensiya? The paper ballot. Hindi po ba? Na fini-fill up-an. That’s one. Number two, election returns, a total of 30 election returns. Andun yung pangalan, andun yung boto, babasahin publicly. Number three, yung digital copy of the paper ballot na kinopya po ng makina. So eto yung gagamitin na ebidensiya… in case protests are filed by lawyers and complaining candidates.

M: Would they also be faster to retrieve than let’s say, manually counting the ballots? Kasi diba before po kasi, bubuksan yung ballot boxes, bibilangin, ire-recount. Kung ganyan po, mas madali po ba siya makuha?
S: Well yung balota po nasa transparent ballot box naman, di po ba? As a matter of fact, nasa batas yung random manual audit. A few days after the elections, to check kung accurate yung proseso. It can be opened and checked by this random manual audit committee or commission. So madaling buksan po. Hindi po mahirap.

G: Parang you seem to have everything covered. Pero if ever man merong may mag cry “foul” or mag cry “cheat”, what do you think they will be complaining about? Kasi na-cover mo na yung pre-program, na-cover mo na yung digital signature, and no cloned keys, what do you think they’ll say?

J: The thing is, because this is a new system, there will be people who will challenge it. They will not be challenging it necessarily because it’s broken. They will challenge it just to prove that it’s not broken. So there will be a lot of that. So we expect that. You know, we’re not under the illusion that everyone will be singing Kumbaya at the end of it. (G: High five at the end of the day). Exactly. So we know that there will be challenges. And we would probably welcome that. If only to prove, like I said, that the system, in fact, is not broken.

G: Thank you very much, we’ll wrap up. Any last messages Sir for our viewers?

S: Well, ang sa akin lang po, this is something new, ‘no Gang? After 100 years, one century, just imagine, we’ll have this new system. So make the most out of it. I always say this is a gift, and because this is a gift, we have to treasure this gift. Pagbutihin po natin for the good of our country.

G: James?

J: Vote.

G: Thank you. This has been Examine.

Adel Tamano needs a makeover…and fast!

Okey. So Attorney Adel Tamano, the former opposition spokesperson and now, one of the Nacionalista’s so-called ” Villar Honor Guards” is running for the Senate. He announced that as soon as he crossed over from Erap’s camp to Villar’s. And because he’s terribly so low in the surveys, understandable for him to do all sorts of gimmicks just to get noticed.

Like this one, agreeing to be the celebrity endorser of the Vicki Belo Group.

A big billboard stands like a sore thumb along EDSA specifically in Guadalupe. A huge photo of a smiling Adel Tamano catches your attention while you drive towards Cubao.

I have nothing against it. IN fact, that tagline which says ” Smart is the New Sexy” is just smart, not iconoclastic. Nothing spectacular, nothing out of the ordinary. We all know that term since it went vogue in the 80’s (remember the Yuppies?).

But if Adel thinks that his latest caper would propel him to the Senate pop charts, he’s wrong. Terribly wrong. In fact, he committed a political harakiri.

Adel suffers from what Prospero Pichay and Michael “Tol” Defensor and even Satur Ocampo also experience—widely known, yet widely mistrusted.

If you study what the SWS and the Pulse Asia survey says about him, it is not that people don’t know him. He has a high awareness rating. People know him.

The question is—will they support or even vote for him? That question can only be solved not by advertising or public relations, but by building an honest-to-goodness grassroots organization.

Some close to Tamano may argue that its a chicken-egg situation—which should come first—popularity or organization. In any day, I say, organization. You become popular when people talk about you. And its really about what people talk about you that’s important.

For example, what would people think about Adel now that he’s the official endorser of Belo? Some would probably think that Adel tolerates sex videos. Others would definitely think that Adel does not mind having fake boobs or plastic surgery. Or, probably, people might think that Adel does not practise his very own religion since he endorses a vanity.

That’s the problem with sons or daughters of former political heavyweights–they think that they can get everything as easy as what their fathers or mothers did.

Getting your face out there at EDSA is the fastest and the surest way to get noticed. That’s good if you’re a celebrity. But if you’re not and you are supposed to aspire for a serious political post, endorsing a very controversial vanity product is simply the most stupid thing to do.

If Adel thinks he can do a Lacson by posing for a billboard, he’s wrong. He is nowhere near the superstar status of Ping Lacson when he did those glutathione billboards along EDSA. Besides, Ping endorsed a non-controversial product; everybody loves to use glutathione. It’s different when you’re endorsing the Belo Medical Group. And I don’t want to tell Adel Tamano why.

And if Adel thinks it was a smart move, then, he definitely is not sexy at all.

One advice to Adel—political superstardom is earned not just served to you on a silver platter. For you to become like your father, you need to prove something. A Harvard law degree is impressive if you are aspiring to become a Justice of the Supreme Court. In Philippine politics, it’s nothing.

What’s a good image for Adel? One advice—BE YOURSELF. You don’t need Belo. You just need to go out there, pump as many hands as possible, grease your starched barong tagalog and just give people what they want—an honest-to-goodness public servant who will not steal big when in power.

Analysis of the 3rd Quarter 2009 SWS Survey

In the latest SWS survey conducted between September 18-21, 2009, Senator Benigno Aquino III emerged as the top Pinoy choice for president. Aquino got 60% of the survey preference of 1,800 respondents. This is the first time that Aquino landed in the presidential list. Senator Manny Villar is a far second with 37%, two percentage points higher than his June survey showing. While former president Joseph Estrada remains within the 15-20% range with 18%, a 7 percentage point drop from the previous June survey.

Villar is teflon guy

What is very clear after a year of surveys that the presidential bet with the most consistent strong showing is Senator Manny Villar with an estimated mass support base of 26.7%. So, if the elections are to be held today, Villar is a sure winner. Why do I say that? Because despite all those controversies levelled against him (i.e. C-5 road controversy) and even with the entry of Senator Noynoy Aquino, Villar’s numbers remain consistently high. Meaning, his support base is at least 27% of the Filipino electorate, the same constituency we saw prior to Joseph Estrada’s ascension to the presidency.

Now, like I said in my other blog, it is very critical for Villar to get a popular running mate that will boost his political stock even more. For example, Villar has a respectable following in the ABC class, yet he is still second to Chiz Escudero, who, political observers note, has a very solid 30% class base support. To be able to win, Villar has to chip Escudero’s numbers in this class.

However, it would be difficult for Villar to gain some more mileage from this class with the sudden entry of Aquino, who has a higher than expected support from the middle class and even at the D-E level. So, even if Villar successfully carve himself a niche out of the ABC class, it will still be Noynoy who will get a sizeable share of the votes of this class. Bear in mind that in previous elections, the ABC class is the most vigilant and the most consistent in actually showing in the polling precincts to exercise their suffrage right. It is this class that we can call the “voting vanguard” since whoever they vote, their bet usually emerges as the winner, despite being statistically lower in numbers compared with the D-E classes.

Chiz hurt by Aquino’s sudden entry

So, with the entry of Aquino, who stands vulnerable? Clearly, the one being hurt is Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) net Chiz Escudero. Escudero’s numbers, contrary to the perception of his supporters, is clearly not sustainable. His mass base is just 16.9% of the electorate, lower than Villar’s. In fact, even if, say Loren Legarda’s supporters (which is clearly within the 23.6% to 25% range) transfer their votes to him, it would still be a toss-up between Villar and Aquino in the end. Why?

There is no clear indication if Legarda’s supporters would ever transfer their votes to Escudero. Okey, just say that at least half of Legarda’s supporters do transfer to Chiz, that would still be not enough for him to win. Why again?

Chiz shares the same constituency as that of Aquino’s, Legarda’s and even Mar Roxas (who has a respectable support base of 15%). Their mass bases would have difficulty transfering to Chiz because these are people within the middle age category who find in him one basic flaw–his youthfulness. The reason why these people consistently vote for Legarda and Roxas can be explained in two things: one, Legarda and Mar are perceived to be seasoned politicians already with (2) idealism. Chiz shares only one criteria with Loren and Mar–his idealism. With Roxas sliding down to the vice presidential spot, the bigger bulk of his 14.6% mass base support will transfer to Noynoy, yet, Chiz will still receive a residual share from it.

Where's the Erap Magic?

Erap’s Magic sputtering

Erap’s magic is suffering from lack of tricks. Erap’s mass base support stands at 13.2%, lower than Chiz’s. In fact, Legarda is even higher than him (23.6%), and Noli’s (25.6%). Erap’s handlers expect that a big bulk of Noli’s mass support will transfer to Erap in the event that Noli decides not to run. Surprisingly, it did not happen. In fact, Erap even lost 7 percentage points due largely (or in part) from the Dacer-Corbito revelations and Ping’s Senate performance.

Erap has just finalized his teamup with Binay, which will actually not benefit him, what with only 1.32% support base. Binay’s numbers is an effect of his association with Erap, so this team-up is actually not symbiotic or mutually benefitting. Erap’s numbers will remain within the 15-20% range, not sufficient to garner a very convincing win come 2010 elections.

Teodoro’s numbers improving

A jump from 0.8% to 4% is encouraging for Teodoro since it is still some months away from the 2010 elections. Teodoro’s numbers are still not indicative of a win–not as yet. What Teodoro needs is a dramatic causa that will convince people to get out of the Aquino-Villar-Escudero pool choices and swing towards Teodoro.

What would that instance or event be? It is the rehabilitation of Luzon.

Northern, Central, NCR and Southern Luzon are traditionally vote-rich regions comprising what is known as the winner’s corridor. Government has just announced that they will be concentrating their efforts on rehabilitating Northern Luzon.

Now, if Gilbert Teodoro plays his cards right, and Mrs. Arroyo appoints him as the head of a commission for the rehabilitation of Luzon, that will spell a very big difference in the coming elections. In fact, this rehabilitation effort would even be the catalyst for SWING VOTES.

He can relinquish his defense portfolio and serve as the Commission head without any legal impediment. No constitutional provision bars a presidential candidate from actually serving as a head of a commission while campaigning, although some might say that the commission is a government position; therefore, a presidential bet is barred from having that kind of position while campaigning.

Okey, if you look at it, it is irrelevant actually whether Arroyo appoints Gibo or not. What is clear is that government will spearhead the rehab efforts. The expected billions of pesos worth of foreign disaster aid will surely be converted to election campaign funds, serving as the administration “carrot” to local government officials of the North.

This rehab effort would be used by the administration to prop up its official bet.

Final Analysis

The political situation is still very much fluid and I subscribe to the qualitative analysis of Pulse Asia that the spot for the presidency is still up for grabs. The configurations are still quite fuzzy and the possibility of an administration win is still possible, for three (3) reasons:

1. One, the administration has the opportunity to salvage its bad rep by implementing an honest-to-goodness rehab campaign in the North.

2. The slow disintegration of the “opposition” and the lack of an emerging third force strong enough to battle with established political forces.

3. Absence of a strong Opposition figure that can stand as the unifying figure behind reform-minded groups.

Loren Legarda’s Dilemma

Sen. Loren Legarda, the top brand name in the 2007 Senatorial race, must decide and act fast. Her ratings are slipping away. And I know what ails the only environmentalist Senator of the land. She knows she has a very solid and very high support base. And being second when you know you can win is an agonizing place to be in.

If you look at the SWS survey ratings from September 2008 to September 2009, she has a very high support base of 24%—higher than Senator Chiz Escudero who is being touted as the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) standard bearer and even of Erap’s (only 13.5%). Escudero has been her most ardent suitor. While Gibo Teodoro is just waiting in the wings for her to say “Yes!” (Gibo, by the way, has a dismal 1% consistent mass base support). Manny Villar is still just some few feet away, fiddling with his big bucks.

Why will I agree to run as second fiddle when my average mass support is higher than all these suitors of mine, says Legarda? Quite understandable, if I would say so.

Loren’s dilemma is actually more of a perception issue rather than a winnability issue. The perception is, Loren’s chances are slim because people would not prefer another woman president. This wrong perception affects funding support behind her candidacy. Of course, without campaign funds, how would she run?

Legarda’s mass base support is very consistent unlike those of Chiz and Estrada’s whose support bases are vascillating and probably, even of Noynoy’s whose support base is still amorphous at this point. A 2o-plus percent mass base is nothing to sneeze at. In a five or even six-cornered fight, this could win elections!

Yet, the reality on the ground runs counter to these survey findings. Political funders have their sights trained on supporting a male president.

Now, an unsolicited advice to Ms. Legarda—think STRATEGIC.

Run as vice president with someone with the machinery—regardless of party affiliation. If you run as NPC vice president, Chiz would only use your mass base to bolster his. If you run as Manny Villar’s second fiddle, the same thing. Yet, if you run under Teodoro’s party, you will still preserve your constituency PLUS enjoy using a big party machinery capable of trouncing a Mar Roxas.

It’s your call.

Travels and Tours @Philippine Blog Awards

Let stop first the politics issues co'z I heard that my friend Travels and Tours is nominated at Philippine Blog Awards (PBA) for the Blogger Choice Special Award (Mindanao). Is this true..? but when I check the site yes I see his blog at the button of the Mindanao category..:-) So once again my vote goes to Travels and Tours.